January 13, 2015
Hull North: a lesson from history
Almost exactly half a century ago, a by-election was about to take place whose surprise outcome would shape the politics of Britain for the rest of the decade. From the…
January 12, 2015
Poll of polls
I’ve added a poll of polls to the blog. You can find it on the top right-hand side of the homepage. It shows a simple rolling average of all the…
January 11, 2015
What’s happened to those ‘many’ more defections to Ukip?
A couple of months ago, much of the media was gripped with a particularly extreme case of Ukip fever. The cause was the decision of first Douglas Carswell then Mark…
January 10, 2015
Seats to watch: the Tories’ decisive dozen
Continuing my look at the seats that will illustrate how well or how badly each party does at the election, here’s my pick for the Conservatives. As with my lists…
January 09, 2015
Predicting the result: two more sites to watch
A few months ago I recommended three websites that are publishing regular and informed predictions of the election result. All three are still going strong, and well worth keeping an…
January 08, 2015
Why the Tories can’t leave the north alone
It should come as no surprise to see David Cameron and George Osborne back in the north of England today. This is why:
January 07, 2015
Four months to go
It’s time for my latest prediction of the election result. I am – as ever – expecting a hung parliament. I also continue to think Labour will get the most…
January 06, 2015
The UK electoral map: which regions and counties will decide the result?
I’ve spent the last few months on this blog touring the electoral map to size up the parties’ chances in every region of the UK. Now that I’ve completed my…
January 05, 2015
How many opinion polls can we expect before election day?
Over the weekend we had the first poll of 2015. It was produced by Opinium for the Observer, and put Labour on 33%, one point ahead of the Conservatives on…
January 04, 2015
How a second general election could take place in 2015
The Fixed-Term Parliament Act of 2011 removed the right of a prime minister to call a general election whenever they liked. For good or ill, the act formalised the length…
UK elections 2015 