Election forecasts

Predicting the result: two more sites to watch

A few months ago I recommended three websites that are publishing regular and informed predictions of the election result. All three are still going strong, and well worth keeping an eye on: the Manchester University Polling Observatory, Elections etc., and Election Forecast UK.

I’d now like to add a couple sites more to this list.

One is the blog of journalist and broadcaster Iain Dale. He is currently going through every single one of the UK’s 650 constituencies and making a forecast of the result. It’s a massive and thoroughly commendable undertaking, for as Dale himself says: “The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits.” This is election forecasting at its most raw and granular, and is shaping up to be pretty indispensable.

The other site is may 2015.com, run by the New Statesman. I must own up to a vested interest here: I am a contributing editor for this site. Nonetheless I’d like to think I’d be giving it a plug even if I had nothing to do with it, because it’s a fantastic resource, and has just launched its online election-forecasting machine. They’ve dubbed it Florence, as in Florence Nightingale, who pioneered not just health care but data journalism. The machine has fully integrated the likely performance of the SNP and Greens, plus the hundreds of constituency polls published by Lord Ashcroft. As such it’s about as definitive a predictor as it’s possible to get, other than ringing up every voter in the country and asking them which party they’re going to support. I’d encourage you to give it a try.

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Discussion

2 responses to ‘Predicting the result: two more sites to watch

  1. “…ringing up every voter in the country and asking them which party they’re going to support. I’d encourage you to give it a try.”

    If you’re paying my phone bill, sure, LOL

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