Election results

The election result: one last look

Ipsos-Mori has released its traditional post-election breakdown of how the country voted. As usual, all the voting intention figures are weighted according to the actual results, combined with turnout on a regional level.

There will many more of these kinds of surveys and investigations over the next few months and years, but few that will draw upon a similar size of data (9,000 respondents) and which can command such a historical pedigree (Ipsos-Mori has been publishing these post-election snapshots since 1979).

The figures show just how cleanly and efficiently the Conservatives managed to secure a victory.

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Published on: Author: Ian Jones
Election results

Where next for Ukip and the Greens?

Both Ukip and the Green party emerged from the general election with one MP each: an outcome that has temporarily united them in support for a reform of the voting system.

While the result was no surprise as far as the Greens are concerned, I thought Ukip would do a tiny bit better and end up with at least two MPs. Instead the party went backwards, holding Clacton but losing Rochester & Strood (and doing so by a margin of 13.6 percentage points).

There is not going to be electoral reform any time soon – maybe not for a generation – so both Ukip and the Greens are going to have to find a different way of working the system to their favour.

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Published on: Author: Ian Jones
Election results

Some reflections

I got it wrong. I got it spectacularly wrong. I even went so far as to trumpet how wrong I was in the opening paragraph of my final prediction of the result. I mentioned – not in passing, but bold as brass – that I’d never forecast the Tories to win the most number of seats. Not once. And I went on to mention that I still wasn’t forecasting the Tories to win the most number of seats. I didn’t even hedge my bets and suggest it could be a tie.

I got it all wrong. I spent the entire year getting it wrong. Why?

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Published on: Author: Ian Jones
Opinion polls

Final polls: update

The final flurry of opinion polls is over. Here’s the full rundown:

  • BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 4%: Tie
  • ICM: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 9%, GREENS 4%: Labour lead by one
  • Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 6%: Tories lead by one
  • Panelbase: LAB 33%, CON 31%, UKIP 16%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 5%: Labour leads by two
  • TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 14%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 6%: Tories lead by one
  • YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 4%: Tie
  • ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 9%, GREENS 4%: Tories lead by one
  • Survation: CON 31%, LAB 31%, UKIP 16%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 5%: Tie
  • Ashcroft: CON 33%, LAB 33%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 6%: Tie
  • Populus: CON 33%, LAB 33%, UKIP 14%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 5%: Tie
  • Mori: CON 36%, LAB 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 5%: Tories lead by one

That’s five ties, four Tory leads and two Labour leads.

The Tories’ shares range from 31% to 36%; the Labour shares run from 31% to 35%. Ukip is between 11% and 16%, the Lib Dems between 8% and 10% (the narrowest range) and the Greens are between 3% and 6%.

Published on: Author: Ian Jones
Opinion polls

Final polls

Over the next 24 hours we should see at least 11 opinion polls published.

I had thought that today’s poll from Lord Ashcroft would be the last we’d hear from him before the election, but it turns out he’s releasing one more on Thursday morning.

His poll today puts the Tories on 32% (-4) and Labour on 30% (no change). The Lib Dems are on 11% (+2), Ukip on 12% (+1) and the Greens on 5% (nc).

Still to come should be at least one poll from each of the following companies:

  • ICM
  • Survation
  • Panelbase
  • Populus
  • Opinium
  • BMG
  • TNS
  • ComRes
  • Ipsos-Mori
  • YouGov

A total of 81 polls have been published so far during this campaign. 30 have put the Tories in front; 37 have put Labour ahead.

At the start of the campaign, the Tories had a 0.2 point lead over Labour in the seven-day poll of polls.

As of today, the Tories’ lead over Labour in the poll of polls is… 0.2 points.

Published on: Author: Ian Jones
Election results

How election night could unfold, hour-by-hour

I’ve had a go at plotting how election night could play out, including when each party will make gains and where seats will change hands.

This isn’t a prediction of the election result. Rather it’s a template for what could happen hour-by-hour, and there are bound to be plenty of deviations from this scenario on Thursday night. Saying that, the outcome that I reach is just as likely as any other.

11pm-12am

Two safe seats for Labour to begin with, both in north-east England.

11-12

Safe seats
Labour (2): Houghton & Sunderland South; Washington & Sunderland West

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Published on: Author: Ian Jones