August 11, 2014
Scotland: Labour’s red wedge
From a region where the Tories are rampant to one where they are almost extinct. Scotland currently has just one Conservative MP, and even he might be gone come next…
Month: August 2014
August 10, 2014
Nigel Farage, Ukip and Thanet South
A few thoughts: 1. If Farage was out to disrupt the two-party system and play the “devil on both your houses” card to its full effect, he should have picked…
August 09, 2014
Latest by-election results: a fillip for Ukip
After a run of losses and near misses, there was a sliver of cheer for Ukip in this week’s council by-elections. In Worthing, the party gained a seat from the…
August 08, 2014
Poll update: momentum with the mainstream
August has got off to a rosy start for any poll-watchers in the Tory and Labour parties (i.e. almost everyone). The monthly averages show both mainstream parties profiting at the…
August 07, 2014
Nine months to go
Another milestone in the countdown to polling day has arrived, which means it’s time for another prediction of the election result. As usual I’ve amended my forecast in light of…
August 06, 2014
If Boris Johnson wanted to really help the Tories win the election, he’d stand in a marginal seat
Since I began this blog I’ve resisted joining the rolling revue that is “Boris Johnson: will he or won’t he – and if so, where?”, something that has bewitched much of…
August 05, 2014
Are these Labour seats really at risk from Ukip?
A new study suggesting up to five Labour seats could fall to Ukip at the general election has sent the media into a bit of a flap. This always happens…
August 04, 2014
What Cameron, Clegg and Miliband’s constituencies looked like 100 years ago today
All three of the main party leaders will be attending events over the next 24 hours to commemorate the 100th anniversary of Britain entering the first world war. As you’d…
August 03, 2014
East Anglia: Labour’s desert
East Anglia is a stark illustration of the extent to which Labour has been in retreat from shire and rural seats since Tony Blair’s victory in 1997. The party has…
August 02, 2014
Latest by-election results: double for Labour, trouble for Ukip
Labour turned in a good performance in this week’s council by-elections. A total of four contests were held on Thursday, in which the party enjoyed two gains, one from the…
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