Opinion polls

Poll update: momentum with the mainstream

August has got off to a rosy start for any poll-watchers in the Tory and Labour parties (i.e. almost everyone).

The monthly averages show both mainstream parties profiting at the expense of their smaller rivals.

The Tories are currently sitting at 33.7%, a whole percentage point up on their average for July. Labour is also up on last month, currently tracking at 36.6%:

January - August 2014 poll trends

The Tories have managed to put on almost two percentage points in as many months, while Labour is back up to where it was in April.

The trends rather undermine my theory that nothing of note ever happens in the polls during MPs’ summer recess. But we’ve still a few weeks to go before the House of Commons is due to return, by which time August’s trends may have settled down.

Note that the totals in the graph above include today’s Populus poll, which placed the Tories on 36% and Labour on 35%.

As for Ukip and the Lib Dems, maybe both are suffering as a result of being sidelined in a season of big news stories where there is room only for people from the top table of politics.

The Lib Dems are back down below 8% once again (7.8%), while Ukip continues to deflate after its annual spring bounce (13%).

As usual, I’ll take another look at poll trends later in the month.


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