August 16, 2014
Latest by-election results: Labour keeps a tight grip on its heartlands
Just two council by-elections this week, both easily held by Labour. One was for a seat on Lambeth council in London:
August 15, 2014
What’s the minimum the Tories need to do to remain in government?
Arithmetically, not very much. One scenario for the 2015 election sees the Tories managing to hold pretty much all the seats they won in 2010, while losing a few to…
August 14, 2014
Predicting the result: three websites to watch
It’s clear we’re going to be spoiled between now and May with the greatest number of polls and forecasts ever published in a British general election campaign. Among all the…
August 13, 2014
Six numbers that will define the election
At their irreducible core, general elections are about mathematics. It matters not a jot in which constituency Boris Johnson decides to stand if all he does is replace one Tory…
August 12, 2014
Mark Simmonds: a casualty not of Ukip, but the ‘early doors’ election
We were always going to get a flurry of MPs announcing they were standing down at the next election. What’s surprising is that it’s happening so late in the life…
August 11, 2014
Scotland: Labour’s red wedge
From a region where the Tories are rampant to one where they are almost extinct. Scotland currently has just one Conservative MP, and even he might be gone come next…
August 10, 2014
Nigel Farage, Ukip and Thanet South
A few thoughts: 1. If Farage was out to disrupt the two-party system and play the “devil on both your houses” card to its full effect, he should have picked…
August 09, 2014
Latest by-election results: a fillip for Ukip
After a run of losses and near misses, there was a sliver of cheer for Ukip in this week’s council by-elections. In Worthing, the party gained a seat from the…
August 08, 2014
Poll update: momentum with the mainstream
August has got off to a rosy start for any poll-watchers in the Tory and Labour parties (i.e. almost everyone). The monthly averages show both mainstream parties profiting at the…
August 07, 2014
Nine months to go
Another milestone in the countdown to polling day has arrived, which means it’s time for another prediction of the election result. As usual I’ve amended my forecast in light of…
UK elections 2015 