UK elections 2015

Number-crunching, news-spotting and result-pondering

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October 08, 2014

The Tories need at least a six-point lead to be sure of forming a government

The recent run of opinion polls showing the Conservatives enjoying a small lead over Labour has understandably attracted a fair bit of comment. It’s rare for voting intentions to switch…

October 01, 2014

September poll round-up: Lib Dems hit another new low as Ukip recovers momentum

After a quiet couple of months, the polling averages for all main parties are on the move – and it’s Ukip alone that has reason to be cheerful. The party…

September 29, 2014

A few more Lib Dems look set to defy the trend

Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll of Liberal Democrat battleground constituencies suggests I may need to revise my classification of the six species of Lib Dem MPs. His findings point to the…

September 28, 2014

The Tories need a turnaround in the polls unprecedented in modern history

A poll by YouGov published last Sunday at the start of Labour’s party conference put the party on 36%. Today’s YouGov poll, published the Sunday after Labour’s party conference, puts…

September 22, 2014

Poll update: Ukip has been helped, not hindered, by the Scottish referendum

Despite most eyes being on Scotland these past weeks, pollsters have kept trotting out their regular snapshots of voting intention at the general election. And their findings have confirmed that…

September 10, 2014

Poll update: the return of the Ukip bounce

Away from the clamour of the referendum campaign, opinion polls on voting intention at the general election are continuing to be produced like clockwork. And so far this month they’ve…

September 02, 2014

The silly season: a slight return

Back in July, I made a forecast for what the YouGov opinion poll would be on the day the House of Commons returned from its summer recess. In seeking to…

August 31, 2014

August poll round-up: the surges, bounces and slumps go on holiday

Despite the month proving to be anything but a silly season when it came to news, all four parties have ended August with their polling averages pretty much unchanged. Labour…

August 20, 2014

Labour is doing well where it ought to do well – but that might not be enough

Labour will take heart from Lord Ashcroft’s latest survey of marginal seats. This time he’s sampled opinion in what he calls the “wider battleground” – constituencies not right at the…

August 17, 2014

Mid-month poll update: a summer of discontent for Ukip and the Lib Dems

The slight swing back towards the two mainstream parties I noticed at the start of August is persisting. The trends suggest both Labour and the Tories are currently getting a…

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About this site

The informed musings of an election obsessive, counting down to 7 May 2015 by poring over the latest forecasts, sizing up target seats and candidates, and riding a swingometer across polls past and present.

Recent Posts

  • The election result: one last look
  • Where next for Ukip and the Greens?
  • Local election results – at last
  • The new election battleground
  • Some reflections

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About the author

I'm a digital journalist, web editor, freelance writer and occasional pundit. You can follow me on Twitter.

All text and images © Ian Jones 2014-15

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