Can big, long speeches about economics made in the House of Commons on a weekday lunchtime ever pack enough punch to shift the mood of the entire nation? Of course…

It’s been a long time coming and much anticipated, but the moment has finally arrived. The Conservatives’ monthly poll average has moved ahead of Labour for the first time since…

In my round-up of February’s opinion poll trends, I wondered how much longer we’ll have to wait before seeing evidence of support moving back towards the two main parties. With under two…

Lord Ashcroft, the arch ringmaster of the election campaign, has done it again. Out of his hat he has pulled a clutch of constituency polls that have created yet another…

If the polls are to obey the expectation of most pundits and show a swing back to the main parties in the run-up to the general election, they better hurry…

Halfway through February, the opinion polls are still clinging stubbornly to the trend of the past few months:

If you step back from the day-to-day fuss over individual opinion polls and ignore all the loose talk about Green “surges” and Tory “crossovers”, not much has really changed over…

As we approach the end of this parliament and the start of the official election campaign, it’s vital to remember two things about the opinion polls. First, they won’t tell…

I’ve added a poll of polls to the blog. You can find it on the top right-hand side of the homepage. It shows a simple rolling average of all the…

Over the weekend we had the first poll of 2015. It was produced by Opinium for the Observer, and put Labour on 33%, one point ahead of the Conservatives on…