Opinion polls

Poll update: we’ve reached the crossover point

It’s been a long time coming and much anticipated, but the moment has finally arrived. The Conservatives’ monthly poll average has moved ahead of Labour for the first time since the start of 2012:


So far in March the Tories have averaged 33.1% while Labour is on 32.9%. A 0.2-point difference is almost as tiny as it’s possible to get and well within the margin of error, but this is as much about symbolism as anything else. After months of very little movement for either party, the Tories have suddenly floated upwards to their highest poll rating since August 2014.

But the change is not just down to a lift in the Conservatives’ fortunes. Labour has also drifted downwards, with 32.9% being its lowest monthly rating since 2010.

Not that any of this means anything consequential as regards the election result. When it comes to interpreting the nationwide polls, the same rule still applies: don’t extrapolate anything from these figures by way of a prediction of what will happen on 7 May.

Yet the crossover will count for a lot among the morale of Tory and Labour party members. It also gives the media a new narrative with which to frame both the closing days of this parliament and the build-up to the start of the official campaign on 30 March.


3 responses to ‘Poll update: we’ve reached the crossover point

  1. Yesterdays article: Some very interesting points about Wales. If Scotland were To go independent and I think it will in the 2020s, I think N Ireland would leave UK and join Ireland but I can never see Wales leaving UK.

    Today’s article: Yes we are starting to see Con share move up and Lab share move down gradually and I think this trend will continue gradually. The problem for Cons is that they need 10% lead to form majority government and a Con lead of 1%-3% is likely to result in Labour most seats.

    • A con lead of 1-3% used to be likely to leave Labour having most seats, but with the developments in Scotland with the SNP, I think a con lead of 1-3% now will lead to the Conservatives having most seats.

  2. All conventional wisdom Polls to Seats has to be consigned to the bin.

    SNP have changed EVERYTHING

    40 Labour seats are no longer safe in Scotland, and the threat of a Hung parliament with SNP holding the balance of power may well have a BIG impact on marginals in the UK.

    A small swing in % share could have a big swing in seats now…

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