February 18, 2015
Which parties could benefit most from the ex-BNP vote?
At the last election, the party that prided itself most on posing as insurgent and anti-establishment was not Ukip or the Greens, but the BNP. It had done well enough…
Month: February 2015
February 17, 2015
Parties are still searching for replacement candidates
The total number of MPs standing down at the election has now reached 88. A few constituencies are still searching for replacements, even though we’re less than three months away…
February 16, 2015
Seats to watch: the full list
Here’s my complete guide to the seats I think will most shape the result of the election, and from which we’ll best judge the success and failure of all the…
February 15, 2015
Poll update: no surges, no slumps
Halfway through February, the opinion polls are still clinging stubbornly to the trend of the past few months:
February 14, 2015
Latest by-election results: Labour gains from Ukip
Only one seat was up for grabs in this week’s local by-elections. It was on Harlow council, and it was won by Labour from Ukip: The result represents a 10%…
February 13, 2015
Parties are advancing on the Lib Dems from four fronts: how many MPs will survive?
Academics from the British Election Study yesterday published what they called a “nowcast” (as opposed to a forecast) of the general election result. It caused quite a stir on social…
February 12, 2015
The biggest swings at the election may well be in Scotland
I wrote yesterday of how Labour will need a 19.7% swing to defeat Nick Clegg at the election, while the SNP will need a 20.8% swing to unseat Douglas Alexander….
February 11, 2015
The list of high-profile MPs at risk of defeat is growing
The number of MPs who may be facing a “Portillo moment” on election night just keeps getting longer. Already on the list was education secretary Nicky Morgan, who would be…
February 10, 2015
The other elections taking place on 7 May
Just before Christmas I had a go at listing all the other elections that were due to take place in the UK on the same day as the general election. The exact number…
February 09, 2015
Might the Tories be wiped out in Scotland – again?
The 1959 general election was the first time the Conservative party failed to win the most seats in Scotland. The Tories have been in decline in this part of the…
