As we approach the end of this parliament and the start of the official election campaign, it’s vital to remember two things about the opinion polls. First, they won’t tell…
I’ve already published my selection of seats that I think will best illustrate how well or how badly Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats fare in the election. Now I’m turning…
Three months from today, the first votes in the general election will already have been cast. So says the journalist Michael Crick, and he makes a persuasive case. For even…
I’ve long argued that Nigel Farage will struggle to win the seat of Thanet South. I said as much the moment he announced his intention to stand for Ukip in…
The talk this week of a Green party “surge” has reminded me of when the same word was applied to Ukip last year. In both cases I prefer to use…
If Esther McVey loses her seat of Wirral West on 7 May, the Conservatives will have been wiped out across the whole of Merseyside. It would be the final act…
Among the delights to be found on the BBC’s Genome website are some cracking examples of how the corporation used to cover elections on the radio. In case you don’t know,…
Though the boundaries of our parliamentary constituencies are redrawn regularly, there’s enough continuity to allow for the existence of what are known as bellwethers: seats whose result time-and-again mirrors exactly…
Almost exactly half a century ago, a by-election was about to take place whose surprise outcome would shape the politics of Britain for the rest of the decade. From the…
I’ve added a poll of polls to the blog. You can find it on the top right-hand side of the homepage. It shows a simple rolling average of all the…
UK elections 2015 