Ipsos-Mori has released its traditional post-election breakdown of how the country voted. As usual, all the voting intention figures are weighted according to the actual results, combined with turnout on…
Both Ukip and the Green party emerged from the general election with one MP each: an outcome that has temporarily united them in support for a reform of the voting…
Five whole days after the polls closed, the final results from this year’s local elections are in. Recounts at Broxtowe and Middlesbrough are the reason it has taken so long….
Here’s where the next election will be won and lost. The newly-elected MPs in each of these seats might want to start thinking now about how they are going to…
I got it wrong. I got it spectacularly wrong. I even went so far as to trumpet how wrong I was in the opening paragraph of my final prediction of…
Time for my final forecast of the general election result. Since I began this blog exactly one year ago today, I have never put the Tories ahead of Labour in…
The final flurry of opinion polls is over. Here’s the full rundown: BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 4%: Tie ICM: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP…
Earlier this year I published a list of seats I thought would most shape the result of the election, and from which we’d best judge the success and failure of all the…
Over the next 24 hours we should see at least 11 opinion polls published. I had thought that today’s poll from Lord Ashcroft would be the last we’d hear from him before the…
I’ve had a go at plotting how election night could play out, including when each party will make gains and where seats will change hands. This isn’t a prediction of…
UK elections 2015 