Time for my final forecast of the general election result. Since I began this blog exactly one year ago today, I have never put the Tories ahead of Labour in any of my predictions. The same is true now.
Here’s how that breaks down by party:
Labour’s total of 275 is up 17 on its result in 2010. It includes Corby, which the party won in a by-election in 2012, but not Bradford West, which I now think will be retained by George Galloway.
The Conservatives’ total of 273 is down 33 on what they got in 2010, and doesn’t include the seat of the Speaker John Bercow. The Lib Dems are down 29. Caroline Lucas will hold her seat for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion. In Northern Ireland the DUP will gain Belfast East from the Alliance but otherwise there will be no change.
Ukip’s three seats are Clacton, Thurrock and Thanet South. After spending much of the past year arguing otherwise, I now feel that Nigel Farage will take the latter seat for Ukip.
The SNP is on 47, which represents an increase of 41 on 2010. I’ve handed them 10 gains from the Liberal Democrats, one from the Tories and 30 from Labour.
Based on these figures, a Tory-Lib Dem coalition would total only 301: 25 short of the theoretical number needed for an absolute majority in the House of Commons. Add in the DUP and you’d have 310. Labour plus SNP would come to 322; add the SDLP and you’d get 325.
The only combination with a comfortable majority would be some kind of deal between Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP, who between them would have 350.
Here’s how I calculated the totals, which are compared with the 2010 general election result.
Labour’s 48 gains
From the Lib Dems: Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Burnley, Manchester Withington, Bristol West, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cardiff Central and Redcar. (total = 9).
From the Tories: Warwickshire North, Hendon, Cardiff North, Sherwood, Stockton South, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Wolverhampton South West, Waveney, Carlisle, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Stroud, Bedford, Dewsbury, Warrington South, Pudsey, Enfield North, Northampton North, Brentford & Isleworth, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Ipswich, Ealing Central & Acton, Norwich North, Bury North, City of Chester, Keighley, Corby, Cannock Chase, Wirral West, Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Hastings & Rye, Erewash, Stevenage and Finchley & Golders Green (total = 39).
The Tories’ 10 gains:
From the Lib Dems: Solihull, Dorset Mid & Poole North, Wells, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, Chippenham, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Portsmouth South, Devon North and Taunton Deane.
The SNP’s 41 gains:
From the Lib Dems: Gordon, Argyll & Bute, Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Dunbartonshire East, Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, Edinburgh West, Fife North East, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Ross Skye & Lochaber (total = 10).
From Labour: Ochil & South Perthshire, Inverclyde, Dundee West, Falkirk, Aberdeen North, North Ayrshire & Arran, Airdrie & Shotts, Glasgow East, Livingston, Edinburgh East, Midlothian, Linlithgow & East Falkirk, Glasgow South, Glasgow North, Glasgow Central, Glasgow North West, Dunbartonshire West, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, East Kilbride Strathhaven & Lesmahagow, Lanark & Hamilton East, Glasgow South West, Motherwell & Wishaw, Aberdeen South, Stirling, East Lothian, Edinburgh North & Leith, Central Ayrshire, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Cumbernauld Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East and Dumfries & Galloway (total = 30).
From the Conservatives: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale.
Ukip’s three gains:
From the Conservatives: Clacton, Thanet South and Thurrock.