September 05, 2014
Latest by-election results: more headlines for Ukip
Ukip has been cultivating the county of Kent for many years, and on Thursday they reaped a small dividend: a seat on Shepway council, which they took from the Conservatives:…
September 04, 2014
Clacton by-election: an end-of-the-pier show that still has weeks to run
The Clacton by-election is over a month away, but titbits of news and gossip are keeping the story in the headlines (much to Ukip’s delight, I suspect). So far this…
September 03, 2014
Yorkshire: a tale of the unexpected
Glance at the current state of play in this region and you’ll have a few prejudices shaken. Roughly a third of the constituencies are held by the Tories, for instance….
September 02, 2014
The silly season: a slight return
Back in July, I made a forecast for what the YouGov opinion poll would be on the day the House of Commons returned from its summer recess. In seeking to…
September 01, 2014
Dudley South: another Tory MP in a marginal seat stands down
Conservative MP Chris Kelly has announced he is not standing for re-election in Dudley South. The seat is 74th on Labour’s target list. Kelly’s departure certainly won’t harm Labour’s chances,…
August 31, 2014
August poll round-up: the surges, bounces and slumps go on holiday
Despite the month proving to be anything but a silly season when it came to news, all four parties have ended August with their polling averages pretty much unchanged. Labour…
August 30, 2014
Latest by-election results: a Lib Dem bounce in Newcastle
There was an unexpected outcome in this week’s sole council by-election. Not only did the Liberal Democrats hold a seat in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, they also achieved a swing from Labour of…
August 29, 2014
Douglas Carswell’s defection to Ukip: six consequences
1. Ukip does well only when it is in the headlines. Like all small parties, it needs as much publicity as possible to give the appearance of momentum. Ukip hasn’t…
August 28, 2014
Seven narratives are shaping the campaign. Which (if any) will turn out to be right?
It used to be so simple. We didn’t know exactly when an election was going to take place, so we didn’t have people counting down meticulously until polling day. And…
August 27, 2014
Ukip to ‘throw the kitchen sink’ – but in the wrong places
Nigel Farage has repeated his promise/threat to stand down as leader of Ukip if his party fails to win any seats the election. He made the remarks on being confirmed…
UK elections 2015 