A poll published this week by Lord Ashcroft suggested that, were the general election held tomorrow, Ukip would win the Tory-held constituency of Thurrock in Essex. This caused a bit…

Lord Ashcroft has published his latest survey of marginal seats, this time concentrating on Tory-Labour battlegrounds. A lot of media attention has focused on the fact Ukip topped the poll…

The Conservative party’s most vulnerable seat in the country has just got even more vulnerable. Dan Byles has announced he will not be seeking re-election as MP for Warwickshire North….

Some of the loudest and least dignified battles of the 2015 election will take place in the seats whose results will turn on a few hundred votes. These are the…

The constituency of Loughborough had, up until 15 July 2014, been just another seat on Labour’s target list. It had mildly symbolic value, thanks to the 3.5% swing needed for…

Today’s government reshuffle has brought promotion not just to some new faces but also some MPs with perilous majorities. A total of four Tory MPs in marginal seats have now…

In my July prediction of the general election result, I put Hendon at the top of the list of seats I forecast Labour to gain from the Conservatives. It’s not…

It’s 19th on Labour’s list of targets. It would fall on a swing of just over 1%. Caroline Lucas’ majority is only 1,252. Last week a poll commissioned by Lord…

Lord Ashcroft has published his survey of Lib Dem-Labour battlegrounds. It proved to be somewhat smaller in scope than his previous study of Lib Dem-Tory contests. He polled only four…

Another batch of opinion polls from marginal seats are due on Tuesday, once again courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. This time he’s surveyed the state of play in Liberal Democrat-Labour battlegrounds….