July 21, 2014
The Tory-Labour marginals: crucible of the next government
Some of the loudest and least dignified battles of the 2015 election will take place in the seats whose results will turn on a few hundred votes. These are the…
Month: July 2014
July 20, 2014
Loughborough: the low-profile target turned high-profile battleground
The constituency of Loughborough had, up until 15 July 2014, been just another seat on Labour’s target list. It had mildly symbolic value, thanks to the 3.5% swing needed for…
July 19, 2014
Latest by-election results: Ukip lose two seats, the Tories lose a council
Nine by-election contests to report this week, and some intriguing results. Ukip were defending two seats – and lost both of them. One was on Cornwall council. Last week the…
July 18, 2014
How the referendum result will be counted
Two months today the voters of Scotland go to the polls to decide whether their country should become independent. I thought it would be interesting to clarify a few details…
July 17, 2014
The summer recess hurts a political party’s reputation more than its poll ratings
For all the bad press MPs receive routinely about their long summer recess from the House of Commons, recent history suggests it barely affects their parties’ respective rating in the…
July 16, 2014
Mid-month poll update: Ukip’s bounce is over
The Ukip slide that was evident in the polls at the start of July has become more marked. Here’s how the party averages are looking halfway through the month:
July 15, 2014
The reshuffle has created new Tory stars but also more potential prize scalps for Labour
Today’s government reshuffle has brought promotion not just to some new faces but also some MPs with perilous majorities. A total of four Tory MPs in marginal seats have now…
July 14, 2014
South-west England: a Tory-Lib Dem hunting ground
One of the things I’ll be doing on the blog over the next few months is taking a look at each region of the UK to see how significant a…
July 13, 2014
Once summer’s over, the Commons will sit for just three-and-a-half months before the election
The House of Commons shuts up shop for the summer on Tuesday 22 July. Whatever the rights or wrongs of MPs having such a long summer recess from Westminster, time…
July 12, 2014
Latest by-election results: a Cornish pasting for the Tories
Cornwall is going to be one of the counties to watch at the general election. All of its six constituencies are marginals – none more so than Camborne & Redruth,…
UK elections 2015 