June 10, 2014
Poll update: Labour edges upwards
A few interesting developments are emerging in this month’s opinion poll averages. Granted, we’re only a third of the way through June. But a run of larger-than-usual poll leads for…
Month: June 2014
June 09, 2014
The Lib Dems and by-elections: diminishing returns, disappearing deposits
There have been 18 by-elections so far in this parliament – more than any parliament since 1992-97. The Liberal Democrats have contested 16 of the 18, and have won only one:…
June 08, 2014
Labour snaps up SNP seat
You might have missed it, but there was another by-election on Thursday. It got somewhat overshadowed by the one in Newark, which is perhaps understandable. But in its own way…
June 07, 2014
11 months to go
As each month passes and we get nearer to the general election, I’ll be offering a prediction of the result. Today marks precisely 11 months until polling day, so here’s…
June 06, 2014
Newark by-election result: five conclusions
As expected, the Conservatives held on to Newark in yesterday’s by-election. The party’s ultra-safe majority was reduced, but it remains a safe Tory seat: Here are my five thoughts on the…
June 05, 2014
The Tory MPs who could be facing the longest of long goodbyes
Success for the Conservatives today in the Newark by-election will be in part down to forward planning. The events causing the election had been long anticipated; the candidate Robert Jenrick…
June 04, 2014
Five-year parliaments: a warning from history
The Queen will today formally open the final session of this parliament. We’re already into its fifth year, though this won’t be the fifth session. That’s because the coalition government…
June 03, 2014
The real battle in Newark will be for second place, not first
Another opinion poll has suggested the Tories are going to hold on to Newark in Thursday’s by-election. Here are the figures, compiled by Survation for Lord Ashcroft:
June 02, 2014
What London could look like on 8 May 2015
London has 73 parliamentary constituencies. At present, they are divided between the parties like this: In light of Labour’s very strong performance in the capital in the local elections, I…
June 01, 2014
May opinion poll round-up: Lib Dems sink to record low
Here’s how the parties’ poll averages for May compare with those for the previous four months: Labour finished May on 34.9%, down 1.7 percentage points on its average for April….
UK elections 2015 