A few interesting developments are emerging in this month’s opinion poll averages.
Granted, we’re only a third of the way through June. But a run of larger-than-usual poll leads for Labour has reversed the party’s recent decline to such an extent that they’re already almost a whole percentage point up on May:
We’ve travelled a long way since then, mind you: Labour’s current average of 35.7% is still almost three percentage points lower than its February peak.
The Lib Dems’ travails continue. At 7.8%, the party’s poll average has already fallen an entire percentage point since the end of May.
Ukip is up 0.8 points at 15.5%, while the Tories are down precisely one point at 31.4%.
We still haven’t reached Ukip’s all-time high of 15.9%, which it hit in May 2013. But unlike last year, the party’s poll rating does not appear as yet to have taken a post-election dip. Within two months of 2013’s local elections, Ukip’s average was down to 12.4%.