March 14, 2015
Latest by-election results: one result, but no election
From time to time, council by-elections are settled not by a ballot but by nobody else bothering to contest the seat. So it proved this week in the Western Isles,…
March 13, 2015
Poll update: we’ve reached the crossover point
It’s been a long time coming and much anticipated, but the moment has finally arrived. The Conservatives’ monthly poll average has moved ahead of Labour for the first time since…
March 12, 2015
Why Wales could end up behaving more like England than Scotland
While the national media has been fixated on what could happen in Scotland at the election, next to no attention has been paid to Wales. If the nationalists are on…
March 11, 2015
Whoever gets to form the next government should take their time
If party leaders are looking for a precedent of how long it should take to form a government, they’d do well to cast a bit further back than five years…
March 10, 2015
How much do polls change in the two months before an election?
In my round-up of February’s opinion poll trends, I wondered how much longer we’ll have to wait before seeing evidence of support moving back towards the two main parties. With under two…
March 09, 2015
One person has already ducked out of the post-election pageantry
I wrote a couple of weeks ago of how the weekend following the election is going to be dominated by commemorations marking the 70th anniversary of VE Day. One event in particular…
March 08, 2015
Latest by-election results: capital cheer for Labour
Three of Thursday’s four council by-elections were in London, and all saw swings from Conservative to Labour. The smallest was in Camden, for a seat that Labour held comfortably and…
March 07, 2015
Two months to go
Were it not for the SNP, my monthly predictions of the election result would barely have changed since last autumn. Instead, the gap between Labour and the Tories keeps on…
March 06, 2015
The fate of tiny parties in the Commons: history’s brutal lesson
There are currently 12 political parties represented in the House of Commons. Come the election, this number could fall to 10. There’s a chance that both the Alliance party of…
March 05, 2015
We still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen in Scotland
Lord Ashcroft, the arch ringmaster of the election campaign, has done it again. Out of his hat he has pulled a clutch of constituency polls that have created yet another…
UK elections 2015 