April 03, 2015
Latest by-election results: two polls, two surprises
Just a couple of council by-elections this week. One of them, which took place on Wednesday instead of the traditional Thursday, saw the Liberal Democrats gain a seat from the…
April 02, 2015
Is support for the two main parties back on the rise?
Just before Christmas I wrote of how support for Labour and the Tories had reached an all-time low, with their combined share in opinion polls averaging around 64%. I added…
April 01, 2015
March poll round-up: Labour avoids crossover by a whisker
Having been marginally behind the Conservatives halfway through the month, Labour managed to end March back in front. But only just: The gap is too narrow to see on the…
March 31, 2015
The Tory-Labour battleground: the five categories of seats
With the election campaign fully under way, it’s high time to revisit the 60 constituencies that will play the biggest part in determining the result. They are the seats Labour…
March 30, 2015
London could swing in a different direction to the rest of south-east England
Ever since Labour did better than expected in London in last year’s local elections, there’s been a sense that come the general election the party will benefit from a higher swing…
March 29, 2015
The ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ Tory blocs: how the numbers currently add up
If you take a simple average of all the latest forecasts of the election result*, the Conservative party has an 13-seat lead over Labour. Both the main parties are well…
March 28, 2015
Latest by-election results: a hat trick for the SNP
All of this week’s council by-elections took place outside England. There were five in total, four in Scotland and one in Wales. The SNP won three seats: two gains and…
March 27, 2015
The six species of Lib Dems: updated
It’s time for another refresh of my anatomy of the Liberal Democrat party. I first updated my list of six species a couple of months ago. Since then things have…
March 26, 2015
Arithmetic is on the side of the SNP, not Ukip
The SNP is likely to win upwards of 30 seats at the election. Ukip is tipped to win around three. So why are both parties often treated as if they’ll…
March 25, 2015
10 things we apparently already know about the election result
For an election that is frequently referred to as the most unpredictable for a generation, it sometimes feels like there’s a surprising amount that’s already being taken for granted about…
UK elections 2015 