July 07, 2014
10 months to go
We’ve hit another marker on the countdown to polling day, so it’s time for my monthly prediction of the result. As before, I’ve tinkered with my forecast. This time it’s…
July 06, 2014
2015 election night TV: what we know so far
You won’t be surprised that I think an election night results programme is one of the most thrilling events on British television. I’d like to suspect most of the country…
July 05, 2014
Latest by-election results, part two: nuggets of good news for all parties… except Ukip
Time to run through the rest of this week’s council by-elections. Along with the three contests in Tower Hamlets that I reviewed yesterday, a further nine took place across England….
July 04, 2014
Latest by-election results: five weeks after polling day, the Tower Hamlets saga is finally over
Rich pickings for election obsessives this week. We had a bumper crop of local contests yesterday: 12 in total. I’m going to save most of them for a later post,…
July 03, 2014
Get ready for the longest official campaign in modern history
We’re now less than nine months away from the formal start of the election campaign. Even though it’s still over 10 months until polling day, the campaign is set to…
July 02, 2014
Lib Dem-Labour marginals: a lopsided wipeout is looming
Lord Ashcroft has published his survey of Lib Dem-Labour battlegrounds. It proved to be somewhat smaller in scope than his previous study of Lib Dem-Tory contests. He polled only four…
July 01, 2014
June poll round-up: Labour halts four-month decline while Lib Dems sink lower
Labour ended June with its monthly poll average on the rise for the first time since February. The party’s share had declined four months in a row, from 38.4% in…
June 30, 2014
The Lib Dem-Labour marginals, aka 20 places the next coalition will be decided
Another batch of opinion polls from marginal seats are due on Tuesday, once again courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. This time he’s surveyed the state of play in Liberal Democrat-Labour battlegrounds….
June 29, 2014
Labour will have enough trouble getting to 35%, never mind 40%
The Fabian Society has published a pamphlet called Labour’s Next Majority: A Constituency Guide. It’s written by the society’s deputy general secretary Marcus Roberts, and contains ideas and tactics to…
June 28, 2014
The safest constituency in the country
…is looking for a new incumbent. Joe Benton, Labour MP for Bootle since 1990, has announced he is stepping down next year. Benton was born in 1933, and is one…
UK elections 2015 