October 15, 2014
South Yorkshire: last gasp for elected police and crime commissioners?
The second largest by-election ever held in the UK takes place at the end of this month. Voters in South Yorkshire go to the polls on 30 October to choose…
October 14, 2014
There’s a solution to staging ‘national’ debates: don’t pretend they need to be national
One of the most persuasive themes of modern political history is the decline not just of the two-party system but the three-party system as well. It is no longer possible…
October 13, 2014
The Lib Dems and by-elections: more diminishing returns and disappearing deposits
We’ve now had 20 by-elections in this parliament. There’s at least one more to come. The Liberal Democrats have contested 18 of the 20, and have won only one: Eastleigh,…
October 12, 2014
Look behind the storm of headlines and the polling trends are calm
If you’re searching for clues about the election result in the latest batch of opinion polls, good luck. Their forecasts seem to be all over the place. Take the three…
October 11, 2014
Latest by-election results: Tories take slight revenge on Ukip
The Conservatives were able to hand a very mild drubbing to their erstwhile MP Douglas Carswell in this week’s council by-elections. A seat on Essex county council was up for…
October 10, 2014
Clacton and Heywood & Middleton: eight reflections
1. Heywood was not a Labour stronghold The media has made much reference to the seat being “rock solid” or “very safe” for Labour. It wasn’t. Jim Dobbin’s majority was…
October 09, 2014
Clacton and Heywood & Middleton: five things to watch for
Voters go to the polls today to choose new MPs for the constituencies of Clacton and Heywood & Middleton. For anyone planning on staying up, the result from Clacton is…
October 08, 2014
The Tories need at least a six-point lead to be sure of forming a government
The recent run of opinion polls showing the Conservatives enjoying a small lead over Labour has understandably attracted a fair bit of comment. It’s rare for voting intentions to switch…
October 07, 2014
Seven months to go
It’s that point in the calendar where I offer my latest prediction of the election result. Precisely seven months away from polling day, I’m once again forecasting a hung parliament,…
October 06, 2014
The Tories will want to play the long game in Rochester & Strood
We don’t yet have a date for the Rochester & Strood by-election, but we do have our first opinion poll. It was carried out by Survation on behalf of the…
UK elections 2015 