February 02, 2015
Migrants and marginals
Some interesting data was published a couple of days ago on the subject of how migrant voters could influence the outcome of the election. A report by the University of…
February 01, 2015
January poll round-up: new year, old trends
If you step back from the day-to-day fuss over individual opinion polls and ignore all the loose talk about Green “surges” and Tory “crossovers”, not much has really changed over…
January 31, 2015
Latest by-election results: a quiet end to a quiet month
This week’s council by-elections saw no changes. The Tories held all three seats that were up for grabs, two of which were in the same ward of St Albans city council:…
January 30, 2015
The six species of Lib Dem MP: updated
Several months ago I drew up a list of what I called the six species of Liberal Democrat MP. I predicted that at least one species, if not more, would become…
January 29, 2015
The SNP’s advance: how big is it really likely to be?
The breathless and rather hysterical coverage of the SNP’s opinion poll ratings continues. A few days ago the party was predicted to win as many as 53 seats at the…
January 28, 2015
How the TV debates could shape the timetable of the election campaign
Now that the TV debates look on balance more likely to happen than not, I’ve had a go at putting together a timetable for how the election campaign might unfold….
January 27, 2015
100 days to go: some lessons from history
We’ve hit another significant marker in the countdown to polling day. There are now just 100 days to the election. Look out for a cavalcade of articles commenting on the…
January 26, 2015
Ukip shedding MEPs is nothing new
Just 48 hours ago I wrote that Ukip had fallen out of the headlines. Not anymore. Amjad Bashir’s defection to the Conservatives gave Ukip top billing in many newspapers and…
January 25, 2015
Which seat might see the lowest turnout?
Following on from my look at the 10 highest turnouts in the 2010 general election, here are – you’ve guessed it – the 10 lowest turnouts:
January 24, 2015
Latest by-election results: new year cheer for the SNP
No seats changed hands in the first council by-elections of 2015, but each result had its own interesting story to tell. The most eye-catching contest was for a seat on…
UK elections 2015 