The result of the 2015 election will be underpinned by a curious and slightly counter-intuitive concept: the less that changes on polling day, the more that could change the day…
A few months ago I recommended three websites that are publishing regular and informed predictions of the election result. All three are still going strong, and well worth keeping an…
It’s time for my latest prediction of the election result. I am – as ever – expecting a hung parliament. I also continue to think Labour will get the most…
Instead of ending 2014 by looking forward and attempting another forecast of the general election result, I thought I’d look back and see how my monthly predictions have changed since…
I noted a few days ago that support for Labour and the Tories is at an all-time low. Their combined share in opinion polls is currently averaging 64%, suggesting over…
One of the most persuasive trends in British politics over 2014 has been the decline in support for the two main parties. The latest opinion polls show the combined vote…
Time for my latest prediction of the election result. I am – as ever – expecting a hung parliament. I also continue to think Labour will get the most seats….
Neither will Nick Clegg. Two new polls from Lord Ashcroft have suggested that the Lib Dem leader is at risk from Labour and that Ed Miliband could be defeated if…
Six months from today, the country will be waking up to find it has elected a new… what exactly? I first asked that question six months ago when I began…
With exactly half a year left until polling day, it’s time for my latest prediction of the election result. As usual I’m forecasting a hung parliament. But for the first…
UK elections 2015 