April 16, 2015
The two numbers that sum up Labour’s election challenge
24. That used to be the kind of number of Conservative seats Labour needed to win at the election to ensure it ended up the largest party in parliament. But…
24. That used to be the kind of number of Conservative seats Labour needed to win at the election to ensure it ended up the largest party in parliament. But…
Time for my latest prediction of the election result – and it’s almost a dead heat: Here’s how that breaks down by party:
With the election campaign fully under way, it’s high time to revisit the 60 constituencies that will play the biggest part in determining the result. They are the seats Labour…
If you take a simple average of all the latest forecasts of the election result*, the Conservative party has an 13-seat lead over Labour. Both the main parties are well…
It’s time for another refresh of my anatomy of the Liberal Democrat party. I first updated my list of six species a couple of months ago. Since then things have…
The SNP is likely to win upwards of 30 seats at the election. Ukip is tipped to win around three. So why are both parties often treated as if they’ll…
For an election that is frequently referred to as the most unpredictable for a generation, it sometimes feels like there’s a surprising amount that’s already being taken for granted about…
The Electoral Reform Society published a report a couple of days ago on the number of female MPs likely to be in the next parliament. It concluded that we could…
Were it not for the SNP, my monthly predictions of the election result would barely have changed since last autumn. Instead, the gap between Labour and the Tories keeps on…
A growing number of websites are making regular predictions of the election result. The Guardian is the latest to join the pack, offering daily forecasts based on a range of…