November 10, 2014
Poll update: no surges, no meltdowns, just business as usual
The unpredictable nature of daily opinion polls continues. So far this month Labour has been as high as 35% and low as 29%, while the Tories have peaked at 34%…
Month: November 2014
November 09, 2014
Latest by-election results: twin humiliations for Labour
There were just two council by-elections this week, but they produced a morale-boosting win for the Conservatives and twin humiliations for Labour. Here’s the result of the Tories’ victory, which…
November 08, 2014
The election result: six possible scenarios
Six months from today, the country will be waking up to find it has elected a new… what exactly? I first asked that question six months ago when I began…
November 07, 2014
Six months to go
With exactly half a year left until polling day, it’s time for my latest prediction of the election result. As usual I’m forecasting a hung parliament. But for the first…
November 06, 2014
In two weeks’ time, voters will elect a second Ukip MP
We’ve still a fortnight to go until the Rochester & Strood by-election. If it feels like the campaign has gone on for months, that’s because it has. By the time…
November 05, 2014
When will the coalition officially come to an end?
Norman Baker’s resignation as Liberal Democrat home office minister has refocused attention on the state of the coalition, just six months out from the general election. Might we see a…
November 04, 2014
Merseyside: Labour’s reliable fortress
Here’s an area of the country with a very high chance of absolutely no constituencies changing hands at the election. Merseyside has settled – some might say ossified – into…
November 03, 2014
How ‘Others’ could overtake the Lib Dems at the election
One consequence of the Liberal Democrats doing particularly badly at the 2015 election would be a downgrading of their status from third party of British politics to fourth – or even fifth….
November 02, 2014
Latest by-election results: a double for independents
No gains for the main parties this week. The only seats to change hands in Thursday’s council by-elections were won by independents – in one case, from another independent:
November 01, 2014
Labour sees off Ukip in South Yorkshire
The Labour party’s comfortable win in Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election should not have been unexpected. The loose talk about Ukip being in with a chance was a textbook example…
UK elections 2015 