September 10, 2014
Poll update: the return of the Ukip bounce
Away from the clamour of the referendum campaign, opinion polls on voting intention at the general election are continuing to be produced like clockwork. And so far this month they’ve…
Month: September 2014
September 09, 2014
When to watch the referendum result on TV
Looking at the TV schedules, it seems neither the BBC nor ITV has made plans for any special coverage of the referendum on Friday 19 September – the day after the…
September 08, 2014
The six species of Lib Dem MP: how many are about to become extinct?
I listed recently the many narratives that are already shaping the election campaign. One of the most popular, perhaps because it involves only one victim, is the so-called impending demise…
September 07, 2014
Eight months to go
We’ve reached another marker in the countdown to polling day, so it’s time for another prediction of the election result. I’m still forecasting a hung parliament, though as usual I’ve…
September 06, 2014
If Scotland votes Yes, the 2015 general election would still take place
One of the few absolute certainties about the Scottish independence referendum is what would happen if the result is No: Scotland would not become a separate country, and would remain…
September 05, 2014
Latest by-election results: more headlines for Ukip
Ukip has been cultivating the county of Kent for many years, and on Thursday they reaped a small dividend: a seat on Shepway council, which they took from the Conservatives:…
September 04, 2014
Clacton by-election: an end-of-the-pier show that still has weeks to run
The Clacton by-election is over a month away, but titbits of news and gossip are keeping the story in the headlines (much to Ukip’s delight, I suspect). So far this…
September 03, 2014
Yorkshire: a tale of the unexpected
Glance at the current state of play in this region and you’ll have a few prejudices shaken. Roughly a third of the constituencies are held by the Tories, for instance….
September 02, 2014
The silly season: a slight return
Back in July, I made a forecast for what the YouGov opinion poll would be on the day the House of Commons returned from its summer recess. In seeking to…
September 01, 2014
Dudley South: another Tory MP in a marginal seat stands down
Conservative MP Chris Kelly has announced he is not standing for re-election in Dudley South. The seat is 74th on Labour’s target list. Kelly’s departure certainly won’t harm Labour’s chances,…
UK elections 2015 