July 11, 2014
Hendon: Labour’s easiest gain
In my July prediction of the general election result, I put Hendon at the top of the list of seats I forecast Labour to gain from the Conservatives. It’s not…
Month: July 2014
July 10, 2014
Will there be a ‘game over’ moment before polling day?
Since 1979, there have been only two general elections where the winner has been uncertain: 1992 and 2010. In every other contest it’s been possible to name the victor several…
July 09, 2014
Poll update: Ukip on the slide
This month’s polls are starting to show a few intriguing trends. The averages of all four parties are on the move. Labour’s rise, first evident last month, is continuing. But…
July 08, 2014
Brighton Pavilion: will the Greens hold on?
It’s 19th on Labour’s list of targets. It would fall on a swing of just over 1%. Caroline Lucas’ majority is only 1,252. Last week a poll commissioned by Lord…
July 07, 2014
10 months to go
We’ve hit another marker on the countdown to polling day, so it’s time for my monthly prediction of the result. As before, I’ve tinkered with my forecast. This time it’s…
July 06, 2014
2015 election night TV: what we know so far
You won’t be surprised that I think an election night results programme is one of the most thrilling events on British television. I’d like to suspect most of the country…
July 05, 2014
Latest by-election results, part two: nuggets of good news for all parties… except Ukip
Time to run through the rest of this week’s council by-elections. Along with the three contests in Tower Hamlets that I reviewed yesterday, a further nine took place across England….
July 04, 2014
Latest by-election results: five weeks after polling day, the Tower Hamlets saga is finally over
Rich pickings for election obsessives this week. We had a bumper crop of local contests yesterday: 12 in total. I’m going to save most of them for a later post,…
July 03, 2014
Get ready for the longest official campaign in modern history
We’re now less than nine months away from the formal start of the election campaign. Even though it’s still over 10 months until polling day, the campaign is set to…
July 02, 2014
Lib Dem-Labour marginals: a lopsided wipeout is looming
Lord Ashcroft has published his survey of Lib Dem-Labour battlegrounds. It proved to be somewhat smaller in scope than his previous study of Lib Dem-Tory contests. He polled only four…
UK elections 2015 