June 07, 2014
11 months to go
As each month passes and we get nearer to the general election, I’ll be offering a prediction of the result. Today marks precisely 11 months until polling day, so here’s…
June 06, 2014
Newark by-election result: five conclusions
As expected, the Conservatives held on to Newark in yesterday’s by-election. The party’s ultra-safe majority was reduced, but it remains a safe Tory seat: Here are my five thoughts on the…
June 05, 2014
The Tory MPs who could be facing the longest of long goodbyes
Success for the Conservatives today in the Newark by-election will be in part down to forward planning. The events causing the election had been long anticipated; the candidate Robert Jenrick…
June 04, 2014
Five-year parliaments: a warning from history
The Queen will today formally open the final session of this parliament. We’re already into its fifth year, though this won’t be the fifth session. That’s because the coalition government…
June 03, 2014
The real battle in Newark will be for second place, not first
Another opinion poll has suggested the Tories are going to hold on to Newark in Thursday’s by-election. Here are the figures, compiled by Survation for Lord Ashcroft:
June 02, 2014
What London could look like on 8 May 2015
London has 73 parliamentary constituencies. At present, they are divided between the parties like this: In light of Labour’s very strong performance in the capital in the local elections, I…
June 01, 2014
May opinion poll round-up: Lib Dems sink to record low
Here’s how the parties’ poll averages for May compare with those for the previous four months: Labour finished May on 34.9%, down 1.7 percentage points on its average for April….
May 31, 2014
England’s 13 Tory-free zones
Last week’s local elections accelerated the Conservative party’s disappearance from most of metropolitan England. An end point of sorts has been reached in some parts of the country, where there…
May 30, 2014
Yes, the Tories will hold on to Newark – but it’ll still be a historic win
This time next week the citizens of Newark will be spending their first day represented by a brand new MP. Here’s the constituency result at the 2010 general election: And…
May 29, 2014
Forget Clegg and Cable; it’ll be Lib Dem MPs like these who’ll lose their seats
From one dicey dozen to another. Here’s a list of the 12 Liberal Democrat MPs who currently have the smallest majorities in parliament, and who are therefore the easiest (on…
UK elections 2015 