February 12, 2015
The biggest swings at the election may well be in Scotland
I wrote yesterday of how Labour will need a 19.7% swing to defeat Nick Clegg at the election, while the SNP will need a 20.8% swing to unseat Douglas Alexander….
February 11, 2015
The list of high-profile MPs at risk of defeat is growing
The number of MPs who may be facing a “Portillo moment” on election night just keeps getting longer. Already on the list was education secretary Nicky Morgan, who would be…
February 10, 2015
The other elections taking place on 7 May
Just before Christmas I had a go at listing all the other elections that were due to take place in the UK on the same day as the general election. The exact number…
February 09, 2015
Might the Tories be wiped out in Scotland – again?
The 1959 general election was the first time the Conservative party failed to win the most seats in Scotland. The Tories have been in decline in this part of the…
February 08, 2015
Latest by-election results: Tories sink in Labour stronghold
Just one council by-election this week. Labour held a seat on Derbyshire county council with ease: This was the first time Ukip contested the seat. The Tories slumped from second…
February 07, 2015
Three months to go
Time for my latest prediction of the election result. I’ve narrowed the gap between Labour and the Conservatives from what I suggested this time last month. I’ve also, once again,…
February 06, 2015
Labour’s most vulnerable seats outside Scotland
A small number of political journalists, such as Dan Hodges and John Rentoul, have started suggesting that the Tories won’t merely end up the largest party at the election, but will…
February 05, 2015
The SNP’s advance: will it really be as big as Lord Ashcroft’s polls suggest?
Last week I drew up a list of all the seats in Scotland currently held by parties other than the SNP. I grouped the seats into five categories based on…
February 04, 2015
What Sunderland South will – and won’t – tell us about the election result
For the past five general elections, the constituency of Houghton & Sunderland South (or Sunderland South as it used to be called) has been the first to declare. It will…
February 03, 2015
Why Esther McVey will be Labour’s bellwether of success – or failure
Esther McVey could well be the David Amess of this election. Famously, it was Amess’ successful defence of Basildon in the 1992 election that symbolised Labour’s failure to make enough…
UK elections 2015 