July poll round-up: everyone’s on the up – except Ukip
Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all ended July with their monthly poll averages up on June. Only Ukip showed a decline – its first since March:
Labour’s average for July was 36.3%: 0.5 percentage points higher than June. It’s the second month in a row that the party has enjoyed a rise. But while Labour is almost back to its April rating of 36.6%, it’s still a way off its 2014 high of 38.4%, which it hit in February.
The Tories were also up in July. They added 0.8 percentage points to their June average to reach 32.7%: the same rating as February. The Tories’ highest monthly average so far this year came in March, when they managed 33.2%.
After sinking to their lowest ever monthly average in June – 7.9% – the Lib Dems have crept back up above 8%, ending July with an average of 8.3%. I guess the party must take relief where it can find it, though let’s be frank: 8.3% is still absolutely awful.
As for Ukip, July was the month where we saw the party’s traditional spring election bounce turn into its equally traditional summer stumble.
Its monthly average fell 1.7 percentage points from 15% in June to 13.3%.
In 2013, its average dropped from 14.1% in June to 12.4% in July. By September it was down to 11.4%, ending the year at 11.1%.
Clearly this will be one of the key trends to watch for in August. And remember, I am only dealing with trends: I’m not trying to analyse individual polls or attempting to read anything else into these figures by way of predictions or extrapolations. As I’ve said before, I’m only concerned with patterns and curiosities arising from polling data in and of itself.
For reference, here’s how the averages have changed over the past 12 months: