We’re now halfway through June, and Labour’s poll figures seem to suggest that the slight revival in evidence at the start of the month has been sustained:
Labour’s average is tracking at 35.9%: a whole percentage point higher than May. The lowest figure the party has scored in any poll so far in June has been 34%; the lowest in May was 31%.
As the graph shows, Labour’s rise is being mirrored by the Lib Dems’ fall.
They are now tracking at 7.7%: 1.1 percentage points lower than their average for May.
Ukip’s mid-month average of 15% implies the party is not (yet) suffering from any sort of post-local election slump, as happened last summer. A reminder, though, that we’ve still to exceed Ukip’s all-time high of 15.9%, achieved in May 2013.
Finally, the Conservatives are currently down half a percentage point at 31.9%. The last time the Tories’ were this low was in November, but as this graph shows, the party has been lower in the last 12 months, touching 30% in June 2013:
Were the parties’ current poll averages reproduced at a general election, on a uniform swing Labour would end up with 347 seats: a majority of 44. The Tories would win 256 seats, the Lib Dems 21, and others 26. Ukip would not win any seats.