Mid-month poll update: Labour’s decline is over – for the time being
We’re now halfway through June, and Labour’s poll figures seem to suggest that the slight revival in evidence at the start of the month has been sustained:
Labour’s average is tracking at 35.9%: a whole percentage point higher than May. The lowest figure the party has scored in any poll so far in June has been 34%; the lowest in May was 31%.
As the graph shows, Labour’s rise is being mirrored by the Lib Dems’ fall.
They are now tracking at 7.7%: 1.1 percentage points lower than their average for May.
Ukip’s mid-month average of 15% implies the party is not (yet) suffering from any sort of post-local election slump, as happened last summer. A reminder, though, that we’ve still to exceed Ukip’s all-time high of 15.9%, achieved in May 2013.
Finally, the Conservatives are currently down half a percentage point at 31.9%. The last time the Tories’ were this low was in November, but as this graph shows, the party has been lower in the last 12 months, touching 30% in June 2013:
Were the parties’ current poll averages reproduced at a general election, on a uniform swing Labour would end up with 347 seats: a majority of 44. The Tories would win 256 seats, the Lib Dems 21, and others 26. Ukip would not win any seats.