I’ve now been running a poll of polls on the blog for over a month, based on a seven-day rolling average of all the latest nationwide polls.
Here’s how the ratings for the five main parties have changed since early March:
It’s no real surprise to see the Tories and Labour locked together all the way, but note how their respective scores have drifted up slightly. The combined share for both parties one month ago was 63.5%; now it’s 67.9%.
At the same time, the Greens’ decline is pretty clear to see. They’ve gone from 6.3% to 5.1%. The Lib Dems have edged up very slightly, while Ukip has gone from 14.7% to 13.1% then back up to 13.8%.
This kind of graph makes for a telling comparison with the one I put on the blog a few days ago, which showed the results of every individual poll over the same period:
The poll of polls is arguably a more useful snapshot. It flattens out the trends and avoids all the noise that inevitably comes with a sequence of dozens of bespoke polls – as someone rightly commented here recently.
Watch to see how the poll of polls changes over the remainder of the campaign. I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t see the Greens below 5% fairly soon.