Election forecasts

The two numbers that sum up Labour’s election challenge

24. That used to be the kind of number of Conservative seats Labour needed to win at the election to ensure it ended up the largest party in parliament.

But that was before the rise of the SNP. Now Labour needs to win anything up to 45 Conservative seats in order to be the largest party and get first shot at trying to form a new government.

Here’s how the maths might work.

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Marginal seats

The Lib Dems’ top 20 target seats (in a parallel universe)

Nick Clegg’s visit earlier this week to the constituency of Maidstone & the Weald, on account of it being one his party’s “top targets”, led me to wonder whether the Lib Dem leader hasn’t become a little demob happy. It also prompted me to dig out the list of what would, in a parallel universe, be the 20 seats most likely to fall to the Lib Dems at the election.


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