Election results

The election result: one last look

Ipsos-Mori has released its traditional post-election breakdown of how the country voted. As usual, all the voting intention figures are weighted according to the actual results, combined with turnout on a regional level.

There will many more of these kinds of surveys and investigations over the next few months and years, but few that will draw upon a similar size of data (9,000 respondents) and which can command such a historical pedigree (Ipsos-Mori has been publishing these post-election snapshots since 1979).

The figures show just how cleanly and efficiently the Conservatives managed to secure a victory.

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Election results

Where next for Ukip and the Greens?

Both Ukip and the Green party emerged from the general election with one MP each: an outcome that has temporarily united them in support for a reform of the voting system.

While the result was no surprise as far as the Greens are concerned, I thought Ukip would do a tiny bit better and end up with at least two MPs. Instead the party went backwards, holding Clacton but losing Rochester & Strood (and doing so by a margin of 13.6 percentage points).

There is not going to be electoral reform any time soon – maybe not for a generation – so both Ukip and the Greens are going to have to find a different way of working the system to their favour.

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Election results

Some reflections

I got it wrong. I got it spectacularly wrong. I even went so far as to trumpet how wrong I was in the opening paragraph of my final prediction of the result. I mentioned – not in passing, but bold as brass – that I’d never forecast the Tories to win the most number of seats. Not once. And I went on to mention that I still wasn’t forecasting the Tories to win the most number of seats. I didn’t even hedge my bets and suggest it could be a tie.

I got it all wrong. I spent the entire year getting it wrong. Why?

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Opinion polls

Final polls: update

The final flurry of opinion polls is over. Here’s the full rundown:

  • BMG: CON 34%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 4%: Tie
  • ICM: LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 9%, GREENS 4%: Labour lead by one
  • Opinium: CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 6%: Tories lead by one
  • Panelbase: LAB 33%, CON 31%, UKIP 16%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 5%: Labour leads by two
  • TNS: CON 33%, LAB 32%, UKIP 14%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 6%: Tories lead by one
  • YouGov: CON 34%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 4%: Tie
  • ComRes: CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LIB DEMS 9%, GREENS 4%: Tories lead by one
  • Survation: CON 31%, LAB 31%, UKIP 16%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 5%: Tie
  • Ashcroft: CON 33%, LAB 33%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 6%: Tie
  • Populus: CON 33%, LAB 33%, UKIP 14%, LIB DEMS 10%, GREENS 5%: Tie
  • Mori: CON 36%, LAB 35%, UKIP 11%, LIB DEMS 8%, GREENS 5%: Tories lead by one

That’s five ties, four Tory leads and two Labour leads.

The Tories’ shares range from 31% to 36%; the Labour shares run from 31% to 35%. Ukip is between 11% and 16%, the Lib Dems between 8% and 10% (the narrowest range) and the Greens are between 3% and 6%.